Tech entrepreneur and “YIMBY” candidate Bilal Mahmood is poised to unseat District 5 supervisor Dean Preston, San Francisco’s only democratic socialist now serving on the board. In the most expensive district race, political opposition groups lavishly funded the effort to “Dump Dean.”
Though some 42,000 additional citywide votes are still uncounted, Preston on Sunday evening acknowledged his dwindling chances to mitigate his vote deficit and seemed to concede the race.
“I’ve spent a lifetime fighting for underdogs, often against the odds,” Preston said in a statement to Mission Local. “I wouldn’t change a minute of it. We can’t win every battle, but we’ll continue the fight.”
Though Preston has continued to gain on Mahmood in first-place votes, Mahmood has maintained a lead when ranked-choice selections are counted, putting him more than 1,300 votes ahead of Preston with 52.7 percent.
“I think it’s representative of a broad coalition campaign that we’ve built,” said Mahmood on Sunday, adding that he believes he will keep his lead over Preston. “And clearly it’s appealed to both progressives and moderates in the district.”
Mahmood’s healthy lead in a longtime progressive district may be the only successful effort this election to oust an incumbent progressive. But the makeup of the Board of Supervisors could still change substantially depending on the outcome of the vote in Districts 1 and 11.
Progressive Connie Chan (51.53 percent) in District 1 is presently nearly 1,000 votes ahead of Marjan Philhour (48.47 percent). District 11, held by termed out Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, is too close to call between the progressive Chyanne Chen (50.62 percent) and the moderate Michael Lai (49.38 percent), though Chen has caught and passed Lai in recent vote drops.
Moderate Danny Sauter appears poised to claim the termed-out Supervisor Aaron Peskin’s seat in District 3, while Jackie Fielder has claimed victory in District 9. District 7 Supervisor Myrna Melgar will likely keep her seat.
Preston has held his seat since 2019, beating Mayor London Breed’s handpicked successor Vallie Brown on two occasions. Clearly, defeating him would be a big win for the city’s more conservative forces.
Last updated on Nov. 10 at 4 p.m. Data from the San Francisco Department of Elections, chart by Kelly Waldron. *Incumbent.
Breed’s pick this year, Mahmood only moved to the district in 2023; he has had ethics issues, and was financially backed by big tech figures. Nonetheless, he apparently clicked with voters. His campaign emphasized the need to cut down bureaucracy and red tape to build housing faster, and to take a more aggressive approach to the fentanyl crisis.
In many parts of District 5, voters also leaned toward their former supervisor, Breed, for mayor over the more progressive candidate, Supervisor Aaron Peskin.
District 5 encompasses a wide slice of San Francisco, spanning the Tenderloin through Hayes Valley, the Fillmore and Japantown, to Haight-Ashbury. Following redistricting in 2022, the Tenderloin was grafted into the district, which lost Cole Valley and part of the Inner Sunset. On paper, that move would seem to favor Preston, but the results in this election tell a different story.
Mahmood said he believes “the electorate just wanted change.” He noted that he has accumulated most of the second- and third-place transfers from other newcomer candidates like Scotty Jacobs and Autumn Looijen, despite their differing policy stances.
The district has long been a progressive stronghold in the city, where Breed was seen by political analysts as an outlier moderate supervisor among otherwise much farther left-leaning leaders like Matt Gonzalez or Ross Mirkarimi.
This election’s results indicate a shift — Preston lost out on voters’ second- and third-place selections, as moderate challengers’ votes pooled together to oust him. Mahmood has blended progressive policies where he aligned closely with Preston, with more conservative ones, like expanding law enforcement.
The race for District 5 was also the most expensive supervisor contest this election cycle, with more than $1.5 million raised by the candidates including public financing. A GrowSF PAC specifically formed with the goal of removing Preston raised nearly $300,000, funded by figures like Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen ($50,000) and Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan ($50,000). Preston’s campaign, meanwhile, raised more than $600,000.
It was a tumultuous and nail-biting few days as the Elections Department slowly eked out results; an initial ballot drop on election night showed Mahmood and Preston neck in neck, a difference of fewer than 200 votes putting Mahmood one percent above Preston. Preston was not discouraged when he trailed in initial results, anticipating progressive votes to come in later.
“The initial drop is always the least progressive,” Preston said at the time, seeing he was only 200 votes behind and saying he wasn’t worried. “That’s a great first drop for us, and very encouraging.”
But that hasn’t been the case in District 5 — though the more progressive candidates locked in tight races have indeed flourished in late voting in Districts 1, 7 and 11.
While Preston has maintained a lead on Mahmood in first-place votes, subsequent ballot drops each day since Thursday only solidified Mahmood’s lead after ranked-choice tabulations: Preston is presently ahead by 279 first-place votes, but ranked choice vote accumulations from other candidates swamp him.
Thus far, 26,477 votes have been counted in the district.
Mahmood has said his priorities in office will be to build low-income, middle-income, and market rate housing, and reduce bureaucracy and red tape to do so more quickly. He also wants to use law enforcement and treatment in conjunction to address the fentanyl crisis and supports safe consumption sites and abstinence-based treatment.
Though Preston presented himself as a champion of tenant rights who has worked to get affordable housing built in the city, Mahmood attacked Preston throughout the campaign, accusing him of “blocking” certain housing projects because he pushed for increased affordability. Preston called these attacks “dishonest” and maintained that he had a lengthy track record of building housing across District 5.
Preston posted a statement on social media on Sunday evening to that end: “I’m proud to stand up to the disinformation fueled by some of the wealthiest in our country, and I will continue to push back against the right-wing pressure groups that backed my opponents and spent seemingly unlimited funds in our district and throughout the city.”
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