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District 1 Sup Connie Chan cruising to re-election; up by 1167 votes

Progressive District 1 supervisor Connie Chan is on track to defeat her moderate challenger Marjan Philhour, after today’s vote drop put her up by 1,167 votes at 51.75 percent. This likely concluded the most expensive supervisor race this year, as moderate groups saw Chan as particularly vulnerable because she beat Philhour by just 125 votes in their last contest in 2020. Almost $2.5 million was spent in the District 1 race. But it appears that Chan’s advantage has only improved. As of Nov. 11, Chan led, 17,232 to 16,065 after ranked-choice tabulation. About 34,000 votes were already counted in District 1. There were approximately 24,700 votes citywide to be counted, but the math is not there for Philhour. The race was expected to be extremely close — the two leading candidates were tied at 11,001 votes apiece after the Thursday results update — […]

Karl The Fog November 12, 2024

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Connie Chan, Myrna Melgar bound for victory.

The San Francisco Department of Elections moments ago released the results of an additional 17,333 ballots. That brings the grand total of processed ballots to 382,292 — 73.2 percent of the electorateThere are now very few ballots remaining — perhaps 24,700. Of those, 6,700 are late-arriving vote-by-mail ballots and some 18,000 are provisional ballots cast at citywide polling places (which may or may not ultimately be accepted). Turnout is tracking to be about 77.8 percent, maximum. The average San Francisco turnout in a presidential year, going back 108 years, is 77 percent. Around 43,000 fewer San Franciscans figure to have cast a ballot in 2024 than they did four years ago. On to the contested Board of Supervisors races: District 1 Supervisor Connie Chan takes a photo with supporters on Nov. 5, 2024. Photo by Junyao Yang. In District 1, Connie Chan now sits […]

Karl The Fog November 11, 2024

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Dean Preston concedes likely defeat in San Francisco’s District 5

Tech entrepreneur and “YIMBY” candidate Bilal Mahmood is poised to unseat District 5 supervisor Dean Preston, San Francisco’s only democratic socialist now serving on the board. In the most expensive district race, political opposition groups lavishly funded the effort to “Dump Dean.”  Though some 42,000 additional citywide votes are still uncounted, Preston on Sunday evening acknowledged his dwindling chances to mitigate his vote deficit and seemed to concede the race.“I’ve spent a lifetime fighting for underdogs, often against the odds,” Preston said in a statement to Mission Local. “I wouldn’t change a minute of it. We can’t win every battle, but we’ll continue the fight.”Though Preston has continued to gain on Mahmood in first-place votes, Mahmood has maintained a lead when ranked-choice selections are counted, putting him more than 1,300 votes ahead of Preston with 52.7 percent.  “I think it’s representative of […]

Karl The Fog November 11, 2024

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Chan, Chen pad leads; Preston in a tight spot

The San Francisco Department of Elections moments ago released the results of an additional 39,845 ballots. That brings the grand total of processed ballots to 364,959 — 69.9 percent of the electorate. There are, perhaps, 41,000 ballots remaining. Turnout is down statewide and San Francisco is no exception. Some 86 percent of registered voters showed up in 2020. This year, the ceiling is hovering at around 77.8 percent. The average San Francisco turnout in a presidential year, going back to 1916 — when San Franciscans helped send Woodrow Wilson back to the White House because, you know, he kept us out of war — is 77 percent. On to the contested Board of Supervisors racesIn District 1, incumbent Connie Chan has pulled out of a dead heat as of Thursday’s counting to hold a sizable lead over Marjan Philhour. Chan now leads by 976 votes.This […]

Karl The Fog November 10, 2024

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Aaron Peskin didn’t win the election. But his propositions sure did.

San Francisco Board of Supervisors president, mayoral candidate, and wildly prolific legislator Aaron Peskin lost the election to Daniel Lurie, a wealthy candidate with zero legislative experience. But his three main ballot initiatives are winning and will, barring unforeseen lunacy, pass into legislation. Here’s the story of how they made it. Prop. CCreating a position for an inspector general with the power to investigate government and city contractor fraud, waste, abuse or misconduct would seem like a tough measure to oppose. It didn’t require any new funding, every single member of the Board of Supervisors voted to put it on the ballot, and corruption scandals have been breaking at a steady clip for years. But GrowSF, TogetherSF Action and the San Francisco Democratic Party all came out against it. It got 60 percent of the preliminary vote anyway. Partly that’s because Peskin […]

Karl The Fog November 10, 2024

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A race leapfrogs in District 11

The San Francisco Department of Elections moments ago released the results of an additional 35,979 ballots. That brings the grand total of processed ballots to 325,114 — 62.3 percent of the electorate.  There are, perhaps, 81,000 ballots remaining. The ceiling on turnout appears to be about 77.8 percent, just a shade higher than the 77 percent historical average in presidential contests going back to 1916.On to the contested Board of Supervisors racesDistrict 1 Supervisor Connie Chan and challenger Marjan Philhour are now untied. Photos by Junyao Yang on Mar. 16 and June 1, 2024.Thursday’s ballot drop resulted in the mathematical oddity of District 1 incumbent supervisor Connie Chan and challenger Marjan Philhour both having exactly 11,001 votes. The race continues to trend Chan’s way. After being up by 262 votes yesterday, today’s vote drop saw her lead rise to 558. Four years […]

Karl The Fog November 9, 2024

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Video: S.F. Target security guard took cash from man, Tased and beat him

After Mission Local reported on a Target security guard beating San Francisco resident Shan Bowerman with a baton last week, additional onlooker video reveals what precipitated that beating: The guard, holding a Taser to Bowerman’s chest, forcibly took his money while he protested loudly. The guard Tases Bowerman in the video, takes the money — a few hundred dollars of a welfare payment by Bowerman’s reckoning — then strikes him in the face with the Taser. No one was arrested in the incident, but Bowerman was treated in an ambulance. The new footage obtained by Mission Local today corroborates Bowerman’s claims last week that the security guard had intervened in a dispute he had with his girlfriend, forcibly took the money from him, Tased him and then handed the wad of bills to Bowerman’s purported girlfriend. The video could lead to assault charges against […]

Karl The Fog November 9, 2024

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Tie broken in D1, Mahmood pulling away in D5

The San Francisco Department of Elections moments ago released the results of an additional 29,917 ballots. That brings the grand total of processed ballots to 289,135 — 55.4 percent of the electorate. There are, perhaps, 117,000 ballots remaining. Today’s results are, clearly, not final — but they do provide a modicum of clarity. The ceiling on turnout appears to be about 77.8 percent, just a shade higher than the 77 percent historical average in presidential contests going back to 1916.Clarity was not needed in the mayor’s race. Mayor London Breed conceded the race yesterday and Daniel Lurie today claimed victory. After today’s ballot drop and ranked-choice voting permutations, Lurie leads by 27,308 votes (55.8 percent to 44.2 percent). While Breed or even Aaron Peskin could, as a mathematical exercise, still prevail, this race — again — has been conceded.With a new mayor, the dynamics […]

Karl The Fog November 8, 2024

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Friend of accused killer’s sister, new DNA expert both testify 

Today marked the opening of defense arguments in the trial of Nima Momeni, who is accused of stabbing Cash App founder Bob Lee to death last year. Momeni’s attorneys today called to the stand Greg Hampikian, a DNA expert — who claimed there was a “serious problem” with the DNA on the knife allegedly used to kill Lee. Hampikian testified that an important footnote was left off the analysis that primarily placed Momeni’s DNA on the handle of the weapon. That footnote would have included the possibility of a false reading. Momeni is accused of stabbing Bob Lee to death over the perception of allegedly inappropriate behavior with Momeni’s sister, Khazar, earlier that day on April 3, 2023. While Lee did see Momeni’s sister before the stabbing, Momeni’s defense attorneys have attempted to discredit that motive by claiming Momeni only took issue […]

Karl The Fog November 8, 2024

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Trump win a ‘punch in the mouth’ for presumptive mayor-elect Lurie

When the next round of ballots are processed at 4 p.m. today, it is widely expected that Daniel Lurie’s path to mayor will move from probable to something more closely resembling a mathematical certainty. Expect his challengers to gracefully acknowledge this. Lurie’s plan to win the race appears to have worked out as devised: Copious amounts of ready money — more than $16 million — drowning out less blessed candidates and highly competent behind-the-scenes hired lieutenants directing a deeply disciplined candidate — who never once succumbed to the temptation to go off-message. The old Yiddish proverb is that a wise man knows what he says and a fool says what he knows. Lurie has proven wise by this measure. So that was the plan to get elected. But, come January, he’ll need a new plan: A plan to govern. At this point, perhaps the […]

Karl The Fog November 7, 2024

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