In November, close to 52 million retired-worker beneficiaries took home an average Social Security check of $1,925.46. While this isn’t a boatload of money, it’s proved to be a vital source of income for our nation’s aging workforce.
In each of the last 23 years, national pollster Gallup has completed a survey that questions how reliant retirees are on the money they receive from America’s leading social program. Since 2002, 80% to 90% of respondents — including 88% in April 2024 — have noted that Social Security is a “major” or “minor” income source. Put another way, close to 9 out of 10 seniors could struggle to make ends meet if Social Security didn’t exist.
But in spite of the undeniably important role Social Security plays in shoring up the financial foundations of tens of millions of retirees, this relied-upon program is faltering.
Current and future beneficiaries are counting on their elected officials to strengthen Social Security — and this includes incoming President Donald Trump.
Ever since the first retired-worker benefit check was mailed out in January 1940, the Social Security Board of Trustees has released an annual report detailing the financial health of the program. In addition to showing how income is collected and where those dollars end up, the annual Trustees Report projects how financially sound Social Security will be over the long run, which is defined as the 75 years following the release of a report.
For four decades (since 1985), every Trustees Report has forecast a long-term funding obligation shortfall. In simpler terms, the Trustees don’t believe aggregate income collection in the 75 years following a report will be sufficient to cover outlays, including annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs).
The 2024 Trustees Report pegged Social Security’s 75-year funding shortfall at $23.2 trillion, which is up $800 billion from the 2023 report.
What’s even more worrisome is that sweeping benefit cuts may be right around the corner for retirees. According to the 2024 Trustees Report, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund (OASI), which is responsible for dishing out payments to retired workers and survivors of deceased workers each month, is forecast to exhaust its asset reserves by 2033.
Before going any further, let’s make clear that depleting the OASI’s asset reserves doesn’t mean Social Security is bankrupt, insolvent, or going to disappear. What it does suggest is that the current payout schedule, including COLAs, isn’t sustainable. If the OASI’s asset reserves are gone by 2033, as forecast, sweeping benefit cuts of up to 21% may be needed to avoid any further cuts through 2098.
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