Este domingo, días después de afirmar a Mission Local que nunca difunde encuestas a los medios, Jim Stearns; asesor de campaña del presidente de la Junta de Supervisores, Aaron Peskin, en su candidatura a la alcaldía, hizo públicas dos encuestas.
Una encuesta, llevada a cabo por la firma Public Policy Research a principios de octubre, colocó a Peskin en tercer lugar con un 17%. En una segunda encuesta idéntica, realizada semanas después, el 18 y 19 de octubre, Peskin está en empate con Daniel Lurie con un 25%; London Breed se sitúa en tercer lugar con un 18%, mientras que Mark Farrell ocupa el cuarto lugar con un 15%.
“¿Terrible, verdad?”, dijo Stearns cuando fue contactado sobre su cambio de política. “Esta es una circunstancia grave”. Esa circunstancia grave son varias de las otras encuestas que no muestran a Peskin en la delantera, incluida una realizada por Sextant Strategies & Research y publicada hoy por el San Francisco Chronicle, basada en datos recolectados el 15 y 16 de octubre. “Consideramos que debíamos incluir la nuestra en el conjunto, ya que es, de hecho, la última y más reciente encuesta” dice Stearns.
La encuesta del Chronicle muestra a Lurie y Breed casi empatados, con un 23% y un 24% de los votos en primer lugar, respectivamente, y a Lurie llevándose el 56% del voto una vez que se contaron todos los votos por orden de preferencia. De las personas que respondieron a esa encuesta, el 18% dijo que Peskin era su primera opción (un aumento del 12% en agosto), pero fue eliminado en la cuarta ronda.
En una contienda electoral que se perfila muy reñida, el margen de error hace que el liderazgo de unos pocos puntos porcentuales en cualquier encuesta sea bastante dudoso. La encuesta más reciente publicada por la campaña de Peskin establece su margen de error en un 4% y señala que el 11% de los votantes de San Francisco aún no ha decidido por quién votará para alcalde. La encuesta del Chronicle tiene un margen de error del 3.5% y estima que el número de votantes que no han decidido es del 13%.
La carrera está en marcha para persuadir a esos votantes indecisos, y se está invirtiendo mucho dinero en ello. Mission Local informó el viernes que, solo en octubre, Daniel Lurie aportó otro $1.75 millones de dólares a su propia campaña, lo que eleva su recaudación total a $8.93 millones de dólares, de los cuales $8.04 millones provienen de su propio bolsillo. Según los recientes informes de campaña, gran parte de eso se está gastando en publicidad.
Durante meses, el equipo de Peskin ha estado llevando a cabo una campaña comunitaria con un alto número de voluntarios y un fuerte énfasis en el trabajo de puerta en puerta, fiestas en casas, recorridos por comercios y conversaciones cara a cara con votantes indecisos, así como asegurando respaldos progresistas. En las últimas semanas, esos esfuerzos solo se han intensificado.
Los esfuerzos de donantes influyentes que buscan implementar una estrategia de “cualquiera menos Peskin” en la contienda por la alcaldía también han crecido. El mismo día en que el New York Times publicó un artículo escrito por el multimillonario local Michael Moritz, sobre una opinión negativa de Peskin, Ron Conway; un inversionista en tecnología que ha hecho generosas donaciones a la campaña de Ed Lee y en contra de la reciente candidatura de Peskin para la Junta de Supervisores, contribuyó con $100,000 dólares al PAC “Residents Opposing Aaron Peskin for Mayor 2024 (Residentes en contra de Aaron Peskin para alcalde 2024)”, cuya misión es precisamente lo que su nombre indica. Esta es la primera gran donación de Conway a la carrera por la alcaldía.
Sunny Angulo, exjefa de personal de Peskin y actual gerente de campaña, prefiere ver esto como una buena señal. “Sabes que Aaron está en ascenso en esta carrera”, dijo Angulo al San Francisco Standard para su boletín Power Play, “si están trayendo de vuelta a Ron Conway y su dinero de entre los muertos”.
Los políticos y grupos de influencia están publicando encuestas en este momento, dice Stearns, porque todos están tratando de mantener a los votantes entusiasmados, con margen de error o sin él. “Hemos estado consistentemente en tercer lugar. Esta es la primera vez que estamos en primer lugar, no hay mucho sentido en ocultarlo. ¿Sabes a lo que me refiero? Vamos a por ello”.
About the author
Judge denies motion to ease house arrest of Jon Jacobo
A San Francisco judge on Thursday denied a motion to loosen the home detention conditions forJon Jacobo, a once-rising star in San Francisco’s politics who was arrested on Aug. 5 for alleged sexual assault. “The motion is denied to the extent that it asks for relief from home detention and [ankle] monitoring,” said San Francisco Superior Court judge Kenneth Wine this morning. “It’s the seriousness of the charges that’s really driving my decision. There are a number of victims with very serious charges.”Jacobo, a longtime Mission District community leader, was first publicly accused of rape in 2021. This April, he resigned from his executive position at affordable-housing developer TODCO, soon after three women accused him of rape and abuse in a San Francisco Standard story. He was arrested on Aug. 5, 2024. Jacobo today showed up in the courtroom in casual clothes […]
Pam Bondi named as new AG pick after Gaetz drops out
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, President-elect Donald Trump's pick for attorney general, said Thursday he is withdrawing his name for the role -- just a day after Gaetz spoke with Republican senators on Capitol Hill about the nomination process.Trump has named Pam Bondi, the former attorney general of Florida, as his new pick for the role.Another controversial Cabinet pick, Pete Hegseth, is on the Hill on Thursday with Vice President-elect JD Vance to make his case for the secretary of the Department of Defense job.Meanwhile, Trump continues to announce his picks for top jobs inside his administration.Latest DevelopmentsNov 21, 6:56 PMTrump nominates Pam Bondi as new AG pickTrump has nominated Pam Bondi as his new pick for attorney general, after Matt Gaetz withdrew from consideration earlier Thursday.Bondi is the former attorney general of Florida, serving from 2011 to 2019 and marking […]
Mission Local bags two Society of Professional Journalists awards
This here publication last week took home two more awards from the Northern California branch of the Society of Professional Journalists for in-depth coverage and analysis of the sort you expect — and demand — of us. Senior editor Joe Rivano Barros and former data reporter Will Jarrett were honored in the “Explanatory Journalism” category for the mammoth effort of tracing and documenting the Russian dolls-like series of interconnected organizations funneling billionaires’ dollars into San Francisco politics. Joe Rivano Barros, who with Will Jarrett won for the Big Money SF work. Photo by Abigail Van NeelyThe series, titled “BigMoneySF,” included Rivano Barros’ profile of Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, the largest donor over the last several election cycles, and Jarrett’s interactive chart, a stunning accomplishment requiring months of work unearthing reams of financial data structured in a manner so as to render it […]
US airline flight crews confident and angry as unions seek richer contracts
By Rajesh Kumar Singh CHICAGO (Reuters) - Alaska Airlines flight attendant Rebecca Owens works 10 hours a day but only gets paid for half that time - a legacy of a common U.S. airline policy to pay cabin crew members only when planes are in motion. Owens, and thousands of cabin crew like her, wants that to change. In August, 68% of Alaska flight attendants in a ratification vote rejected a contract that would have increased average pay by 32% over three years. It was also the first labor agreement that would have legally required airlines to start the clock for paying flight attendants when passengers are boarding, not when the flight starts to taxi down the runway. Delta Air Lines, the only major U.S. airline whose flight attendants are not in a union, instituted boarding pay for its flight […]
Easy Caramel Apple Cider Mimosas
Sweet, tart and bubbly, this recipe for Caramel Apple Cider Mimosas is a perfectly refreshing cocktail for your next fall party, Thanksgiving brunch, or holiday gathering! A traditional mimosa is only two ingredients: orange juice and champagne (or sparkling wine). But since this recipe is inspired by warm autumn flavors, apple cider replaces orange juice and we’re adding a splash of caramel flavored whiskey. If you can’t find a caramel flavored whiskey, we have some substitutions below in the ‘Tips’ section below. The Ingredients Champagne (Or other sparkling wine like cava or prosecco) Apple cider (not a apple juice) Caramel flavored whiskey Fresh apple slices (honey crisp or granny smith are both delicious!) How to Make the Mimosas These mimosas are easy to make! Simply add 2 ounces of apple cider to your champagne glass with .5 ounces (equal to […]
‘Slow Streets, Fast Friends’ mural comes to 20th St. in the Mission
Sign up below to get Mission Local’s free newsletter, a daily digest of news you won’t find elsewhere. Josue Rojas hovers in the air above the ground, gingerly balancing his stomach on a stool while holding his paintbrush in one hand, face towards the asphalt. He says it’s better than being on all fours. “It’s particularly brutal work,” says Rojas. “I’m on my knees six to eight hours a day and, now that I’m in my mid-40s, it’s not that easy to bear.” Rojas has spent the past week working between bursts of rain to create a street mural on 20th and Florida streets for the “Slow Streets, Fast Friends” project of the SF Parks Alliance nonprofit, which commissions murals on slow streets throughout the city.The mural was finished this past weekend, and now adorns the block where Atlas Cafe, the Southern […]
Related
Judge denies motion to ease house arrest of Jon Jacobo
A San Francisco judge on Thursday denied a motion to loosen the home detention conditions forJon Jacobo, a once-rising star in San Francisco’s politics who was arrested on Aug. 5 for alleged sexual assault. “The motion is denied to the extent that it asks for relief from home detention and [ankle] monitoring,” said San Francisco Superior Court judge Kenneth Wine this morning. “It’s the seriousness of the charges that’s really driving my decision. There are a number of victims with very serious charges.”Jacobo, a longtime Mission District community leader, was first publicly accused of rape in 2021. This April, he resigned from his executive position at affordable-housing developer TODCO, soon after three women accused him of rape and abuse in a San Francisco Standard story. He was arrested on Aug. 5, 2024. Jacobo today showed up in the courtroom in casual clothes […]
Mission Local bags two Society of Professional Journalists awards
This here publication last week took home two more awards from the Northern California branch of the Society of Professional Journalists for in-depth coverage and analysis of the sort you expect — and demand — of us. Senior editor Joe Rivano Barros and former data reporter Will Jarrett were honored in the “Explanatory Journalism” category for the mammoth effort of tracing and documenting the Russian dolls-like series of interconnected organizations funneling billionaires’ dollars into San Francisco politics. Joe Rivano Barros, who with Will Jarrett won for the Big Money SF work. Photo by Abigail Van NeelyThe series, titled “BigMoneySF,” included Rivano Barros’ profile of Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, the largest donor over the last several election cycles, and Jarrett’s interactive chart, a stunning accomplishment requiring months of work unearthing reams of financial data structured in a manner so as to render it […]
‘Slow Streets, Fast Friends’ mural comes to 20th St. in the Mission
Sign up below to get Mission Local’s free newsletter, a daily digest of news you won’t find elsewhere. Josue Rojas hovers in the air above the ground, gingerly balancing his stomach on a stool while holding his paintbrush in one hand, face towards the asphalt. He says it’s better than being on all fours. “It’s particularly brutal work,” says Rojas. “I’m on my knees six to eight hours a day and, now that I’m in my mid-40s, it’s not that easy to bear.” Rojas has spent the past week working between bursts of rain to create a street mural on 20th and Florida streets for the “Slow Streets, Fast Friends” project of the SF Parks Alliance nonprofit, which commissions murals on slow streets throughout the city.The mural was finished this past weekend, and now adorns the block where Atlas Cafe, the Southern […]
SFMTA board approves new Valencia bikeway—but few are happy
The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency’s board unanimously approved the new curbside Valencia Street bike lane on Tuesday, and admitted that the transit agency should have been more cautious with experiments in merchant corridors.That experiment — a bike lane running up the center of the street — had pitted transit advocates against shopkeepers. Now cyclists and the Valencia Corridor Merchants Association were finally on the same page: Neither were fans of the new design.“The [merchants association] cannot officially support the side-running bike lane,” said Manny Yekutiel, president of the Valencia Corridor Merchants Association, which has fought the old design. Yekutiel was one of dozens who spoke up in the three-hour-long meeting held at City Hall.Yekutiel, echoing long-held concerns from merchants against streetscape changes, said the new design will get rid of a lot of the parking spots on Valencia Street. […]
Banderas flags
Banderas flags Source: missionlocal.org
Nima Momeni contradicts himself on witness stand
In his third day of testimony Nima Momeni, who is on trial for the stabbing death of Cash App founder Bob Lee seemed to contradict some of his earlier statements. For the most part, Momeni answered the questions about the April 2023 incident and aftermath using very similar phrasing as he did during two days of testimony last week. Most significantly, Momeni testified earlier that the altercation between Lee and himself began over a “joke” he made to Lee about spending time with his family instead of going to a strip club. Judge Alexandra Gordon, who asked questions through the morning on behalf of the jurors, asked Momeni what happened after this joke and whether Momeni ever apologized for it. That’s when Momeni mentioned knowing Lee was in town to see his children. This raised an issue: Last week, under questioning from prosecutor Omid […]
