Este domingo, días después de afirmar a Mission Local que nunca difunde encuestas a los medios, Jim Stearns; asesor de campaña del presidente de la Junta de Supervisores, Aaron Peskin, en su candidatura a la alcaldía, hizo públicas dos encuestas.
Una encuesta, llevada a cabo por la firma Public Policy Research a principios de octubre, colocó a Peskin en tercer lugar con un 17%. En una segunda encuesta idéntica, realizada semanas después, el 18 y 19 de octubre, Peskin está en empate con Daniel Lurie con un 25%; London Breed se sitúa en tercer lugar con un 18%, mientras que Mark Farrell ocupa el cuarto lugar con un 15%.
“¿Terrible, verdad?”, dijo Stearns cuando fue contactado sobre su cambio de política. “Esta es una circunstancia grave”. Esa circunstancia grave son varias de las otras encuestas que no muestran a Peskin en la delantera, incluida una realizada por Sextant Strategies & Research y publicada hoy por el San Francisco Chronicle, basada en datos recolectados el 15 y 16 de octubre. “Consideramos que debíamos incluir la nuestra en el conjunto, ya que es, de hecho, la última y más reciente encuesta” dice Stearns.
La encuesta del Chronicle muestra a Lurie y Breed casi empatados, con un 23% y un 24% de los votos en primer lugar, respectivamente, y a Lurie llevándose el 56% del voto una vez que se contaron todos los votos por orden de preferencia. De las personas que respondieron a esa encuesta, el 18% dijo que Peskin era su primera opción (un aumento del 12% en agosto), pero fue eliminado en la cuarta ronda.
En una contienda electoral que se perfila muy reñida, el margen de error hace que el liderazgo de unos pocos puntos porcentuales en cualquier encuesta sea bastante dudoso. La encuesta más reciente publicada por la campaña de Peskin establece su margen de error en un 4% y señala que el 11% de los votantes de San Francisco aún no ha decidido por quién votará para alcalde. La encuesta del Chronicle tiene un margen de error del 3.5% y estima que el número de votantes que no han decidido es del 13%.
La carrera está en marcha para persuadir a esos votantes indecisos, y se está invirtiendo mucho dinero en ello. Mission Local informó el viernes que, solo en octubre, Daniel Lurie aportó otro $1.75 millones de dólares a su propia campaña, lo que eleva su recaudación total a $8.93 millones de dólares, de los cuales $8.04 millones provienen de su propio bolsillo. Según los recientes informes de campaña, gran parte de eso se está gastando en publicidad.
Durante meses, el equipo de Peskin ha estado llevando a cabo una campaña comunitaria con un alto número de voluntarios y un fuerte énfasis en el trabajo de puerta en puerta, fiestas en casas, recorridos por comercios y conversaciones cara a cara con votantes indecisos, así como asegurando respaldos progresistas. En las últimas semanas, esos esfuerzos solo se han intensificado.
Los esfuerzos de donantes influyentes que buscan implementar una estrategia de “cualquiera menos Peskin” en la contienda por la alcaldía también han crecido. El mismo día en que el New York Times publicó un artículo escrito por el multimillonario local Michael Moritz, sobre una opinión negativa de Peskin, Ron Conway; un inversionista en tecnología que ha hecho generosas donaciones a la campaña de Ed Lee y en contra de la reciente candidatura de Peskin para la Junta de Supervisores, contribuyó con $100,000 dólares al PAC “Residents Opposing Aaron Peskin for Mayor 2024 (Residentes en contra de Aaron Peskin para alcalde 2024)”, cuya misión es precisamente lo que su nombre indica. Esta es la primera gran donación de Conway a la carrera por la alcaldía.
Sunny Angulo, exjefa de personal de Peskin y actual gerente de campaña, prefiere ver esto como una buena señal. “Sabes que Aaron está en ascenso en esta carrera”, dijo Angulo al San Francisco Standard para su boletín Power Play, “si están trayendo de vuelta a Ron Conway y su dinero de entre los muertos”.
Los políticos y grupos de influencia están publicando encuestas en este momento, dice Stearns, porque todos están tratando de mantener a los votantes entusiasmados, con margen de error o sin él. “Hemos estado consistentemente en tercer lugar. Esta es la primera vez que estamos en primer lugar, no hay mucho sentido en ocultarlo. ¿Sabes a lo que me refiero? Vamos a por ello”.
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